jueves, 23 de enero de 2014

Los riesgos de un nuevo default en Argentina

Thirteen years after Argentina’s record $95bn default in 2001, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is running out of time to avert another crisis. The peso sank 3.5% to a record low of 7.14 per dollar yesterday, according to Banco de la Nacion Argentina, and has plunged more than 25% in the past 12 months. That’s its worst selloff since the devaluation that followed the default. Fernandez’s biggest financial problem is the loss of foreign reserves. They’ve tumbled 44% in the past three years to $29.5bn as prices on the country’s soy and wheat exports slumped and Argentines circumvented currency controls created to keep dollars onshore. The government sought to stiffen those restrictions again yesterday, limiting people to two online purchases a year from overseas providers. Lawsuits stemming from the 2001 default amount to $50bn. Investors are bracing for the possibility of another default. The country’s average dollar bond yield of 12% is the highest among major developing nations after Venezuela. Trading in swap contracts that insure bonds shows investors see a 79% probability of a halt in payments over the next five years (Publicado en Bloomberg)

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